Chu – Page 38

February 20, 2008

nb

应对科索沃独立，北京的手段很高明，很高明。

那厢tw示好，却是热脸贴冷屁股，interesting，interesting^_^。

不得不说，新政府外交手段及其高明。当我这个蚁民还在担心这个dilemma如何解决，没想到耍了如此高明的一招，敬仰景仰-_-

btw，今天原油期货终于突破100美刀了，唉。

February 19, 2008

sick

终于病啦，到瑞典来第一次吃药。不过似乎无甚效果，声音哑得唱不出歌了，感觉就像破了的锣什么的。

依然在忙，但是效率不高，加油先。

February 18, 2008

independence of kosovo

虽然很忙，大事，还是需要写写、

科索沃独立。其背后的大国之间的博弈以及对台湾的影响我无法做出过多猜测和判断，但是很值得思考。把一些看到的信息po上来吧。

"We, the democratically elected leaders of our people, hereby declare Kosovo to be an independent and sovereign state. This declaration reflects the will of our people and it is in full accordance with the recommendations of UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari and his Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo Status Settlement.We declare Kosovo to be a democratic, secular and multiethnic republic, guided by the principles of non-discrimination and equal protection under the law."

The declaration of independence was made by members of the Kosovo Assembly meeting in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, on 17 Feb,2008. It was approved by a show of hands, with no votes of opposition from the 109 members present.

值得关心的不仅是事件本身，各方的关注更值得玩味。

首先看自己人的反应，科索沃和塞尔维亚人的反应。先说科索沃地区的demography。Albanian majority is now estimated to constitute 90% of Kosovo’s population。剩余的10%是塞尔维亚人。阿尔巴尼亚族人以及邻国阿尔巴尼亚人欢呼雀跃，而塞尔维亚人却极其不爽，总理发表讲话这辈子都不承认这件事情（通俗说法）。

States planning to recognise Kosovo
Australia， Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Panama, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States,当然还有我们的小小台湾。顺便剪一段“发言人”的话：’We congratulate the Kosovo people on their winning independence and hope they enjoy the fruits of democracy and freedom,’ Phoebe Yeh, acting spokeswoman of the Foreign Ministry said.

States planning to not recognise Kosovo

Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina, People’s Republic of China, Cyprus, Georgia, Greece, Indonesia, Romania,Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Vietnam.大多数国家的反应都不奇怪，有传统利益所在的，有分裂担忧的。西班牙是其中一个少有的传统西方国家，因为加泰罗尼亚地区也一直叫唤着要独立。政治从来都是功利的，呵。

中立的国家就不说了，但是还是关注一下瑞典的态度好了，呵呵。来自http://www.huliq.com/50555/no-immediate-kosovo-recognition，Sweden said it will not be one of the first EU countries to recognise Kosovo。个人认为这是明智的态度。

其实中国也未明确表明态度，至少我在国内各大网站未见什么官方的报道，新华网倒是贴了各方的态度，但是独缺中国。而且评论性的文章基本没有。但是西方基于一贯立场，把中国直接排在了States planning to not recognise Kosovo上。但是我相信以政府的外交手法，咱们没必要去当出头鸟。塞尔维亚自己都还没说什么呢，何必。政治嘛，玲珑很重要。是明智的态度，唯一值得担心的是将来若是台湾真的搞起来了，国际舆论会否出现当初科索沃怎样怎样你中国怎样怎样，但是个人认为不足虑。塞尔维亚本身急着加入欧盟，而欧盟恨不得马上把南联盟留下的破房子拆的更烂，塞尔维亚眼前只有两条路可选，选择欧盟放弃科索沃，or vice versa。

国际舞台，说话大声与否是国力决定的，台湾方面，全中国十几亿人不说全部但相信绝大多数是有绝对的决心要取回台湾的，外界的干扰再大也要做的事情。取回台湾，也许需要付出沉重代价，但是失去台湾，很可能是国破家亡的局面。而且科索沃与台湾问题有本质区别，不赘述。

拭目以待吧，看看事情的走向。3，22已经很近，8.8也已经很近。2008将会是中国历史上重要的一年。希望伟大的祖国能够顺顺利利地走过着风雨交加的一年吧。

科索沃独立历史和政治（from wiki）

Historical background （History of Kosovo）

Location of Kosovo in EuropeKosovo, which for some time was a territory of the medieval Serbian state, was conquered by the Ottoman Empire following Serbia’s defeat in the 1389 Battle of Kosovo. Over the following five hundred years it gained a very mixed population that included Albanian, Slavic and Turkish Muslims living alongside the Christian Montenegrins, Roma and Serbs. The loss of Kosovo became a major theme in Serbian national iconography and its recovery became a key goal following Serbia’s formal independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1878. Serbia regained control of Kosovo in the Balkan Wars of 1912–1913. By this time, however, Serbs had become a minority in Kosovo, with Albanians now comprising the majority of the population. The restoration of Serbian rule was opposed by many Kosovo Albanians. Serbia lost control of the territory in both of the World Wars, during which many Kosovo Serbs were expelled by armed Albanian groups. Serbian control was nonetheless re-established at the end of the two wars.

When the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) was established after 1945, with Serbia as one of its six constituent republics, Kosovo was made an autonomous province of Serbia rather than a republic in its own right. The extent of its autonomy varied considerably under the communist Yugoslav system; from 1974 to 1989 it enjoyed very extensive rights of self-government, along with Serbia’s northern province of Vojvodina, which gave it a status on the collective Presidency of the SFRY that was virtually equivalent to a full republic. The autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina was drastically reduced in 1989 by the government of the Serbian President Slobodan Milošević. Self-government by the province’s Albanian majority—now estimated to constitute 90% of Kosovo’s population—was ended. In response, the Albanian members of the Kosovo Assembly voted on 2 July 1990 to declare Kosovo an independent state, though this was only recognised by Albania. A state of emergency and harsh new security rules were subsequently imposed by Serbia following mass protests by Kosovo’s Albanians. The Albanians established an unofficial "parallel state" to provide education and social services while boycotting or being excluded from Serbian-run government institutions.

Kosovo remained largely peaceful through the Yugoslav wars of the early 1990s, although the severity of the Serbian regime in Kosovo was widely criticised by the international community and human rights groups. In 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began attacking Serbian security forces and civilians whom it regarded as "collaborators". The conflict between Serbian and Yugoslav security forces and the KLA insurgents escalated until Kosovo was on the verge of all-out war by the end of 1998. In January 1999, NATO warned the Yugoslav government that it would intervene militarily if Yugoslavia did not agree to the introduction of an international peacekeeping force and the establishment of a democratic government in Kosovo. Subsequent peace talks failed and from March 24 to June 11, 1999, NATO carried out an extensive bombing campaign against targets in Serbia and Montenegro, including in Kosovo itself. The war ended with Milošević agreeing to allow peacekeepers into Kosovo and hand over its governance to the United Nations.

Political background （Kosovo status process）

Ethnic composition of Kosovo as of 2005After the end of the Kosovo War in 1999, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1244 to provide a framework for Kosovo’s interim status. It placed Kosovo under transitional UN administration, demanded a withdrawal of Serbian security forces from Kosovo and envisioned an eventual UN-facilitated political process to determine Kosovo’s status (i.e., whether it would become independent or remain part of Serbia). The resolution also explicitly upheld the existing sovereignty of Yugoslavia, of which Serbia is the legal successor, over Kosovo, "reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other States of the region, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act and annex 2 [referring to status principles agreed at the end of the war]." It also established a requirement that the post-conflict constitutional process must take full account of "the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia".

In February 2007, Martti Ahtisaari delivered a draft status settlement proposal to leaders in Belgrade and Pristina, the basis for a draft UN Security Council Resolution which proposed ‘supervised independence’ for the province. By early July 2007 a draft resolution, backed by the United States and the European Union members of the Security Council, had been rewritten four times to try to accommodate Russian concerns that such a resolution would undermine the principle of state sovereignty. However, it had still not found agreement.[6] Russia, which holds a veto in the Security Council as one of five permanent members, stated that it would not support any resolution which was not acceptable to both Serbia and the Kosovo Albanians.[7] While most observers had, at the beginning of the talks, anticipated independence as the most likely outcome, others suggested that a rapid resolution might not be preferable.[8]

The talks finally broke down in late 2007 with the two sides remaining far apart, with the minimum demands of each side being more than the other was willing to accept.

February 14, 2008

Rambo 4

期待已久的Rambo 4，今天终于忍不住挑了个比较清楚的枪版，结论是，rambo老矣，但尚能饭啊。

此片绝对Rated R，血腥程度比起以往的Rambo简直就是大大超出，一刀断头，开肠破杜，腐烂尸体，重机枪打烂身体，狙击爆头。。。数不胜数。

影片刚开始的那个部分比较让人作恶，宣传米国所谓的“人道”，一群除了用sb两个字再也找不到别的合适的词来形容的用电影里缅甸人嘴里的话来说叫白鬼的人的sb样子实在让人作恶。一口一个this is our choice and life.然后是I AM GONNA REPORT THIS…最后得到什么了？是造了更大的杀孽。

在士兵的眼里，That’s fucking noble,嘿。

不过倒是很想有一把Rambo那把刀，看过去在丛林里很实用的样子，比lord of war里那个黑人总统儿子想要的那把兰博之枪来得现实一些，哈。

February 12, 2008

route

Stockholm—Abisko->Kebnekaise->Vakkotavare->Ritsem-Vaisaloukta->Staloluokta->sulitjelma—Göteborg—stockholm

February 3, 2008

雪，震撼，思考

斯京突降大雪，我不知道这样的学算不算暴雪，应该是我见过的最大的雪，两个小时积雪10公分，而且刮大风。等昨天晚上出门时，世界已经成了一片纯白，路上的凹凸也不见了，在一片银装素裹的世界里，感觉若有若无。

不知道在国内雪灾处处的时候写这样的文章合不合适。若不是昨天出门看了大量报道南方雪灾的情况，面对一场这么大这么美的雪，心情应该会很舒畅。不过国内的雪灾算是一场天灾，更值得关注的是社会各方对此事的态度。看到了社会各界的关心，看到了温家宝的尽心，看到了很多积极的方面，虽然也不乏依然存在的许多bureaucracy。

造成这么大社会影响主要原因是因为南方缺乏面对风雪的经验，没有任何应对措施。对于南方的零下3、4度，还有下的雪，要是全移到北方，相信就像没有一样，没准儿还会增加过年的气氛。但是在没有暖气的南方室内温度一旦降到零下，屋内的自来水管就结冰，更严重的就爆裂，于是就开始断水，接着就断电了，当然这是推测的原因。没有水电的日子就显得特别的恐慌。同样的道理，家里几乎没有人装空调的斯德哥尔摩的夏天要是有2个礼拜40度的高温，一定会出大问题。类似的例子数不胜数，例如雅典奥运会的场馆没有基本没有设计排水设施，一场小雨就淹没了场地。

不过气候的变迁还是很震撼人心，看到姐姐发来的照片，俨然就是《the day after tomorrow》的翻版，相反在北纬60度的斯德哥尔摩，今年居然温度常常还零上，一月份还会下雨，这个星球上的气候真的是疯了。不知道南方雪灾对领导人造成的影响会否像后天里的president那么大，但是希望不要把这当成只是一个应对经验不足而造成的事件来看吧。多考虑考虑气候方面的原因，多考虑考虑是否真的应该真正关心关心我们生存的环境，多考虑考虑星球的未来。

而对于中国而言，近期的目标应该是大力加强基础设施的建设，还有面对突发事件的预警机制已经快速反应机制。

贴几张照片好了，后天可以找到现场版的了。。。

February 1, 2008

2月1日

开学两周了。马不停蹄，马不停蹄。

今天2月1日，月票终于能用了，屁颠儿屁颠儿跑出去逛了一圈，猛然发现在非打折时期买东西时多么的龌龊，想不到一个合适的词语来形容这感觉，借用万能形容词龌龊好了。到处都是70% OFF，Jesus christ！！！

买了双echo的gore-tex徒步鞋，心里美滋滋的，哈哈。1500的鞋子600就买到了，nnd，nnd。。。还有一双timberland才500，但是感觉做工次了不少。这双600的gtx真实超值到家了，哈哈。还有一双原价2000+的登山鞋，gtx，现在不到1000，但是现在暂时用不到登山鞋貌似，穿登山鞋的感觉和中学时候腿上绑个铅袋训练感觉差不多，哈。据说H&M 现在都2.5折，明天有空再去看下好了。可是levi’s貌似都不怎么打折，而且奇怪的是levi’s的裤子貌似在这里卖的本身就比较贵。还是从米国买好了，根据小罗的消息，一条501只要3、40刀，nnd。。。

最近的学习实在是太忙了，一个period5门课的感觉很爽，偏累，但是比较充实，只是需要再更好的计划一下时间的使用，不然很容易collapse。联系office，明天送报纸去。还有顺便提下周四晚上的salsa课，上的不错，虽然两个instructor的水平一般，但是教我这样的rookie绰绰有余，哈。想起了豆豆姐啦，跟这么牛的人住久了，学校这种业余的水平自然无法入眼，哈哈。豆豆姐的学生都比那帮人强，哈。想起豆豆姐又顺便想起了朱朱和朵朵，唉唉。真想把那两只猫抓过来和wille同学作伴，三只猫养在一起，挖挖挖，想想就觉得好诱人，哈哈哈。

抽空把西班牙的游记和照片贴上来好了，貌似已经说了好几遍这句话了，尽量尽量，还有好多assignment没做乜，加油加油！！

January 30, 2008